Trade outlook: India’s exports hold steady amid Donald Trump tariffs; new markets offset US slowdown

India’s export performance has remained steady even as global markets face volatility, according to SBI Research, which shared its assessment. As per news agency ANI, the report states that merchandise exports between April and September in FY26 touched $220 billion, a 2.9 per cent rise from $214 billion in the same period last year.

Exports to the United States also increased by 13 per cent to $45 billion, although shipments in September dipped nearly 12 per cent year-on-year.The US continues to be a key market, but its share in India’s total exports has fallen since July 2025, reaching 15 per cent in September. SBI Research highlights mixed sectoral trends. The US share in India’s marine product exports declined from 20 per cent in FY25 to 15 per cent in September, and its share in precious stones fell sharply from 37 per cent to 6 per cent. However, both marine products and ready-made cotton garments still registered growth during the April–September period.At the same time, as per ANI, India’s export basket has become more geographically diverse. Countries including the UAE, China, Vietnam, Japan, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nigeria saw higher shares across several product groups. SBI Research suggests that some of this may indicate indirect routing of Indian goods, noting that Australia’s share in US imports of precious stones rose from 2 per cent to 9 per cent, while Hong Kong’s share increased from 1 per cent to 2 per cent.On the trade policy front, India is grappling with higher US tariffs under the Trump administration, which have hit textiles, jewellery and seafood — particularly shrimp. To support exporters, the government has approved Rs 45,060 crore in assistance, including Rs 20,000 crore in credit guarantees.The rupee also faced pressure, slipping to 89.49 against the dollar on Friday amid global financial turbulence. According to ANI, the Reserve Bank of India reiterated that it does not defend any fixed exchange rate, and analysts see the decline as a temporary adjustment.India’s current account deficit narrowed to 0.2 per cent of GDP in Q1 FY26, improving from 0.9 per cent a year earlier, supported by services exports and remittances. SBI Research expects the deficit to widen slightly in the next two quarters before turning positive by fiscal year-end, projecting a full-year deficit of 1.0–1.3 per cent of GDP and a balance-of-payments gap of up to $10 billion.